“Haven’t We Hit the Ceiling Yet?” - 30 Years of False Peaks in Lower-Mainland Real Estate
Every market cycle I sit across a coffee table from a client who says, “Prices can’t go any higher - no-one can afford it.” I’ve been hearing that line since the mid-2000s, but each pause only set the stage for a higher high. Let’s run the tape.
Article Details
- Author: Lukas Matheson
- Published: October 3, 2025
- Category: Market Analysis
Article Summary
- 1. Déjà vu: the price-ceiling conversation Every cycle a client says, “Prices can’t go any higher - no one can afford it.” I’ve heard that line since the mid- 2000s. Each pause set the stage for a higher high. 2. Seven “peaks” that didn’t stick 1994-96 – Early-’90s recession cools sales; average detached price hovers around $369k. As interest rates fall, buyers return and by 2000 prices exceed the old peak (≈ 4-year recovery). 2008-09 – Global Financial Crisis knocks prices 10-15 %. Bank of Canada slashes rates; by mid-2010 values set new records (≈ 18 months). 2012-13 – Stricter mortgage-insurance rules shave ~ 8 % off benchmarks, but the market rebounds by 2015. 2016-17 – A 15 % Foreign Buyer Tax triggers a 5-9 % dip; fresh highs arrive 11 months later. 2018-19 – OSFI B-20 stress-test plus higher rates push sales to an 18-year low; prices fall 2-3 % but recover within a year. 2020 – COVID-19 freeze (April sales –56 % month-over-month). By December 2020 sales hit an all-time record and prices beat the pre-pandemic level. 2022-24 – Fastest BoC hiking cycle in 40 years cuts benchmarks about -6 % from the April 2022 peak. By April 2025 the composite index still sits at $1.185 M; the