30 Years of Lower-Mainland Real Estate: Have We Hit the Ceiling?

I expect plateaus between new highs in Lower-Mainland real estate unless migration stalls or supply meaningfully outpaces demand.

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## Why hasn’t the price ceiling held? Every cycle a client says, “Prices can’t go any higher - no one can afford it.” I’ve heard that line since the mid- 2000s. The affordability problem is real. But it hasn’t created a lasting ceiling: external shocks have knocked values back, while structural scarcity has pulled them toward new highs. I expect plateaus between new highs unless migration stalls or supply meaningfully outpaces demand. The latest cycle is still unfolding. ## Seven “peaks” and what followed - 1994-96 – The early-’90s recession cools sales; average detached price hovers around $369k. Falling interest rates bring buyers back, and by 2000 prices exceed the old peak (≈ 4-year recovery). - 2008-09 – The Global Financial Crisis knocks prices 10-15 %. The Bank of Canada slashes rates; by mid-2010 values set new records (≈ 18 months). - 2012-13 – Stricter mortgage-insurance rules shave ~ 8 % off benchmarks. The market rebounds by 2015. - 2016-17 – A 15 % Foreign Buyer Tax triggers a 5-9 % dip. Fresh highs arrive 11 months later. - 2018-19 – The OSFI B-20 stress-test plus higher rates push sales to an 18-year low. Prices fall 2-3 % but recover within a year. - 2020 – The COVI